石家庄学院学报

以2000年、2010年、2020年为研究时间节点，选取河北省24个中心城市为研究样本，构建人口集聚度与城市综合承载力评价体系，运用熵权-CRITIC组合赋权法、状态空间法、耦合协调度模型，实证分析人口集聚与综合承载力的耦合协调关系。研究发现：人口集聚度持续攀升，等级分化加剧，空间格局由“南高北低”演化为“南北双核引领、中部相对凹陷”的多极网络形态；综合承载力呈“先升后降”的倒U型演变态势，经济子系统为首要驱动力，资源环境子系统后期约束加剧；耦合协调度以初级和中级协调为主，省域中心城市的协调发展优势未充分显现，耦合协调类型可分为4类，区域差异明显；障碍因子发生阶段性转变，呈现从基础设施单一硬约束到创新能力、产业发展双重软短板凸显特征，水资源约束加剧。据此从人口治理、城市功能升级、要素适配、区域协同4个维度提出适配人口新常态的中心城市发展与人口调控策略，助力河北省城镇化高质量发展。

Taking 2000, 2010 and 2020 as research time nodes, this paper selects 24 central cities in Hebei Province as research samples, and constructs an evaluation system for population agglomeration degree and urban comprehensive carrying capacity. By adopting the entropy weight-CRITIC combined weighting method, the state-space method, and the coupling coordination degree model, it conducts an empirical analysis on the coupling and coordination relationship between population agglomeration and urban comprehensive carrying capacity. The research findings show that: The population agglomeration degree keeps rising with intensified hierarchical differentiation, and the spatial pattern has evolved from the pattern of "high in the south and low in the north" into a multi-polar network form characterized by "dual-core leadership in the north and south and a relative depression in the central region". The comprehensive carrying capacity presents an inverted U-shaped evolutionary trend of "rising first and then declining",with the economic subsystem serving as the primary driving force, while the constraint of the resource and environment subsystem has intensified in the later stage. The coupling coordination degree is mainly at the primary and intermediate coordination levels; the advantages of coordinated development of provincial central cities have not been fully exerted.The coupling coordination types can be divided into four categories with prominent regional differences. Obstacle factors have undergone phased changes, shifting from the single hard constraint of infrastructure to prominent dual soft shortcomings of innovation capability and industrial development, together with increasingly severe water resource constraints. Accordingly, from the four dimensions of population governance, urban function upgrading, factor adaptation and regional coordination, this paper puts forward development and population regulation strategies for central cities adapted to the new normal of population, so as to facilitate the high-quality urbanization development of Hebei Province.